Event · Predictive risk
CN ChinaJoy Hype Lounge
AI-projected risk trajectory · 85 days to event
Current status
Permit awaiting venue authority approval
Days to event
85
Runway elapsed · 43% of 150-day plan
At current pace
Holding pattern until upstream block clears
Intervention points
3
Cumulative impact 27pp risk reduction
Based on 41% workback at 85d out — versus an expected 43% for this point in the runway — the projection holds the event in a blocked posture. Spend-to-date is $290K of $580K (50% burn vs 43% of the runway elapsed).
Risk climbs every day the upstream block sits unresolved. Three intervention windows compound: Day 14 creative review, Day 7 vendor lock, Day 3 run-book walkthrough.
Day 14
Jul 18
Creative review
Lock creative direction with Strategy and freeze asset list. Catches scope creep before it cascades into production.
Projected impact: −12pp reduction in risk
Day 7
Jul 25
Vendor lock
Confirm load-in windows, signed POs, and back-up vendors on standby. Closes the highest-variance window in the runway.
Projected impact: −9pp reduction in risk
Day 3
Jul 29
Run book
Run-of-show walkthrough with all leads on the venue floor. Surfaces last-mile issues before doors open.
Projected impact: −6pp reduction in risk
Risk score = baseline + workback deficit + burn-rate gap + status premium. Intervention impact is calibrated against historical events of the same template.