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Margin waterfall

Trace where margin shifts — from planned through committed to actual.

Event

Planned budget

$400K

$359K estimated · Amazon Ads Immersion Day: Los Angeles

Committed

$150K

37.5% of planned

Actual

$291K

72.8% posted

Forecast margin

-46.3%

$-185K headroom

Planned → committed → forecast
Each section bar shows variance vs estimate · green = under-budget (margin gain) · red = over-budget (margin loss)
$0$84K$168K$252K$336K$420K$400KPlanned−$235K+$160K overVenue−$120K+$62K overTechnical / AV−$48Kon planCatering−$38Kon planCustom Fab−$34Kon planGeneral Production−$36K+$4K overTalent−$22Kon plan3P Staffing−$18Kon planLogistics−$12Kon planBOH−$12Kon planSignage−$5Kon planPermits−$5Kon planDecor$-185KForecast margin
BalanceUnder estimate (margin gain)Over estimate (margin loss)On plan
Reading the chart

Starting from a planned budget of $400K, $150K is committed and $291K posted as actual — leaving a forecast margin of -46.3% ($-185K).

Biggest swings: Venue over estimate by $160K (eroding margin); Technical / AV over estimate by $62K (eroding margin).

Section breakdown
12 budget sections · variance vs estimate is the margin lever
SectionEstimatedCommittedActualBest estimateVariance
Venue$75K$60K$175K$235K+$160K
Technical / AV$58K$25K$95K$120K+$62K
Catering$48K$10K$0$48K$0
Custom Fab$38K$15K$0$38K$0
General Production$34K$12K$0$34K$0
Talent$32K$18K$18K$36K+$4K
3P Staffing$22K$0$0$22K$0
Logistics$18K$0$3K$18K$0
BOH$12K$0$0$12K$0
Signage$12K$5K$0$12K$0
Permits$5K$5K$0$5K$0
Decor$5K$0$0$5K$0
Total$359K$150K$291K$585K$226K

Best estimate per section = max(committed + actuals, estimated). Forecast margin = planned budget − Σ best estimate.