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Margin waterfall

Trace where margin shifts — from planned through committed to actual.

Event

Planned budget

$850K

$850K estimated · Amazon Ads Immersion Day: Los Angeles

Committed

$313K

36.8% of planned

Actual

$291K

34.3% posted

Forecast margin

-25.3%

$-215K headroom

Planned → committed → forecast
Each section bar shows variance vs estimate · green = under-budget (margin gain) · red = over-budget (margin loss)
$0$179K$357K$536K$714K$893K$850KPlanned−$350K+$170K overVenue−$35Kon planBOH−$8Kon planPermits−$90Kon planCustom Fab−$190K+$45K overTechnical / AV−$60Kon planTalent−$22Kon planSignage−$18Kon planTradeshow−$65Kon plan3P Staffing−$95Kon planCatering−$45Kon planLogistics−$87Kon planGeneral Production$-215KForecast margin
BalanceUnder estimate (margin gain)Over estimate (margin loss)On plan
Reading the chart

Starting from a planned budget of $850K, $313K is committed and $291K posted as actual — leaving a forecast margin of -25.3% ($-215K).

Biggest swings: Venue over estimate by $170K (eroding margin); Technical / AV over estimate by $45K (eroding margin).

Section breakdown
12 budget sections · variance vs estimate is the margin lever
SectionEstimatedCommittedActualBest estimateVariance
Venue$180K$175K$175K$350K+$170K
BOH$35K$0$0$35K$0
Permits$8K$0$0$8K$0
Custom Fab$90K$0$0$90K$0
Technical / AV$145K$95K$95K$190K+$45K
Talent$60K$18K$18K$60K$0
Signage$22K$0$0$22K$0
Tradeshow$18K$0$0$18K$0
3P Staffing$65K$0$0$65K$0
Catering$95K$0$0$95K$0
Logistics$45K$0$3K$45K$0
General Production$87K$25K$0$87K$0
Total$850K$313K$291K$1.1M$215K

Best estimate per section = max(committed + actuals, estimated). Forecast margin = planned budget − Σ best estimate.