Back to Insights
Insights · Margin waterfall
Margin waterfall
Trace where margin shifts — from planned through committed to actual.
Event
Planned budget
$850K
$850K estimated · Amazon Ads Immersion Day: Los Angeles
Committed
$313K
36.8% of planned
Actual
$291K
34.3% posted
Forecast margin
-25.3%
$-215K headroom
Planned → committed → forecast
Each section bar shows variance vs estimate · green = under-budget (margin gain) · red = over-budget (margin loss)
BalanceUnder estimate (margin gain)Over estimate (margin loss)On plan
Reading the chart
Starting from a planned budget of $850K, $313K is committed and $291K posted as actual — leaving a forecast margin of -25.3% ($-215K).
Biggest swings: Venue over estimate by $170K (eroding margin); Technical / AV over estimate by $45K (eroding margin).
Section breakdown
12 budget sections · variance vs estimate is the margin lever
| Section | Estimated | Committed | Actual | Best estimate | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | $180K | $175K | $175K | $350K | +$170K |
| BOH | $35K | $0 | $0 | $35K | $0 |
| Permits | $8K | $0 | $0 | $8K | $0 |
| Custom Fab | $90K | $0 | $0 | $90K | $0 |
| Technical / AV | $145K | $95K | $95K | $190K | +$45K |
| Talent | $60K | $18K | $18K | $60K | $0 |
| Signage | $22K | $0 | $0 | $22K | $0 |
| Tradeshow | $18K | $0 | $0 | $18K | $0 |
| 3P Staffing | $65K | $0 | $0 | $65K | $0 |
| Catering | $95K | $0 | $0 | $95K | $0 |
| Logistics | $45K | $0 | $3K | $45K | $0 |
| General Production | $87K | $25K | $0 | $87K | $0 |
| Total | $850K | $313K | $291K | $1.1M | $215K |
Best estimate per section = max(committed + actuals, estimated). Forecast margin = planned budget − Σ best estimate.